在對立後面

陳雲林來臺，維安規格高被媒體形容為“元首級禮遇”，是少見多怪，頭腦清醒的人大概都不會看不出這中間的差別。而且這番高規格跟兩個星期前張銘清來臺期間發生的暴力沖突當然有絕對的關係，又與臺灣過去幾年的非理性兩極對立又有極大關係。

 

可惜，臺灣一場一邊倒的總統選舉結果，還是沒能讓沉溺於因政治兩極對立而亢奮的小部分人清醒過來，急功近利而短視的政客還在繼續操弄對立；淺薄而嗜血的媒體把這小部分人放大為臺灣的全貌；朝野當權者，無論是因為愚蠢自大，或是所謂被綁架，都無法在這種氛圍中保持清醒；沮喪的大多數只好繼續沮喪，或者從《海角七號》中找到些許慰藉。

 

真希望陳雲林看到的是另外一個臺灣，一個更真實更能夠代表大多數臺灣人的臺灣：一個自由，多元的臺灣，而自由與多元的最深刻精神內涵就是對他人自由與與己不同的多元主張的尊重與包容。在臺灣，有人主張統一，有人主張臺灣獨立，確信陳雲林早就知道，這次也看見了。但是，無論那聲音是不是多數，所有的臺灣人都尊重這些主張，這，才應該是讓他感到震撼的那股力量。而這次陳雲林的臺灣之行，在層層的維安人員包圍之下，恐怕，不容易感受到。

 

對臺灣影響最大的外部因素，大概就是中國大陸，美國，再加一個夾在美國與中國之間的日本；其中，影響最大的是中國，這一點，任何政客都不應忽視。臺灣的內部經濟，臺灣的國際地位，臺灣的安全，無不與中國有極為密切的關係，能夠與中國有良好的關係幾乎是臺灣發展的必需。不承認這一點，如果不是居心叵測，至少也是缺乏視野。

 

要提醒執政當局，改善兩岸關係，雖然的的確確是推動經濟，提高國際地位，緩解臺灣面臨軍事威脅的不二法門，固然反對黨指責“賣臺”帽子太大，但人民也并沒有完全放心執政黨。沒錯，這麼大的一步棋，要讓人民完全放心不可能，但至少要讓我們看到當局在捍衛主權，面對中國強權有什麼樣的智慧，有什麼樣的堅持。主權與尊嚴的問題也許不是這次會談的內容，但卻是體現在每次與北京當局打交道的方方面面，也許不是在兩會交手的過程，而是在APEC，而是在中南美洲，而是在WHO。善意提醒執政者，絕不能有“等碰到主權問題時，再表達嚴守立場”的心態，更希望反對黨所指出在國民黨中的“親中勢力”不會影響兩岸政策的制定與執行。作為一個來自中國大陸的異議分子，我深知共產黨利用一些人出於對民進黨幾年來在臺灣惡搞的反感，以及失去權力的憤憤不平心態，用茅臺酒，釣魚臺國宴，警車開道給與溫暖，所努力建立的統一戰線。希望執政當局很清楚地明白，七百五十萬選票所選的絕不是這批人。

 

對於反對黨，我衷心希望能夠重新拾起人民的希望，在對於國民黨失望透頂的時代，給了民進黨機會的臺灣人民過去這八年再次失望，教訓過民進黨之後，仍然沒有看到她的反省自新，眼睜睜看著她走向新黨式微的一條老路，那就是擁抱極端，崇尚對立。善意提醒民進黨，臺灣的媒體是淺薄嗜血的，一些對立沖突的行為可以占據版面，但絕不代表大多數人民的好惡。一個簡單的計算方法：對立法則固然可以穩固一批支持者，但也確立了幾乎同樣數目的對立者，所有中間的選民在對立內容選擇之後，就是選擇要不要對立了；而當對立內容沒有說服力時，懲罰挑動對立也已經變成這些中間選民確定的選擇方向。當執政當局并沒有在大原則上犯錯時，對立的內容被褊狹自私政客所裹脅，只會讓民進黨在中間選民中繼續流失，哪怕國民黨永遠學不會反省自新，只要有像馬英九這樣的人看守住它不犯大錯，民進黨就永遠無法超越小黨的局限。陳雲林來臺灣時，除了衝撞維安而擠上版面，除了給執政黨扣幾頂“賣臺”的大帽子，對兩岸關係提出一些像樣的主張和對今天執政黨的具體批判才是應該作的。

 

而要告訴陳雲林的是，臺灣是一個民主社會，雖然民主有時會走入盲目與民粹的死胡同，但是每一次的選舉都會讓拿著選票，也就是掌握巨大權利的人民，有機會反省；無論媒體多麼淺薄，在資訊開放的社會，這種反省與思考就會揚棄舊思路，舊政客；激烈對立亢奮之後，不得不承擔沉重社會對立後果的人民就會修正自己曾經在激情之下的決定；那些用茅臺酒，釣魚臺國宴培養的“統一戰線”在臺灣就會變成“失意政客”，即使在國民黨這種腐朽僵化的政黨也會很快失去影響力。要跟一個民主社會對話，必須要深刻瞭解選民的思想。在兩岸關係這個議題上，無論表面多麼對立，臺灣人民對此的看法其實相當接近，那就是無論誰都無法接受在上千枚導彈威脅之下的和談，無論誰都對中國在國際社會絞殺打壓臺灣的作法極度反感；無論誰都無法接受北京自居於中央政府的不平等安排，無論誰都無法信任來自對自己的人民開槍的政府所作的承諾。

 

正在沉淀中的臺灣，要完全揚棄操弄民粹的政客，可能還要一段時間；中國要理解這些還有花更長的時間，兩岸關係也必將走上一段相當遠的路。理性，冷靜的選民是民主社會施政正確順利的重要保障。

陳水扁的理想

 

看一個人，一定要全面，無論多么令人討厭的人，如果能有所成就，則一定有其過人之處。陳水扁就是這樣一個人，無論你多麼討厭他，也不得不承認這個人，從美麗島律師到臺北市議員，到立法委員，臺北市長，最終選上總統，在他手上完成了臺灣的第一次政黨輪替，他一定有其過人之處。

 

毅力，正是陳水扁的最大過人之處。如果沒有極為堅強的毅力，很難在艱苦的從政道路上，一路走來，始終充滿鬥志，充滿精力。

 

那麼，陳水扁的毅力來源又是什麼呢？這我只能猜測了。對於權力的渴望，多年的從政過程中品嘗到權力帶來的成就感，現實利益，以及因而產生的貪婪，這些都可能是他的毅力後面的動力來源。但我相信，在最初的時候，在這些足以讓人墮落腐化的誘因還不存在的時候，在需要承擔壓力、風險並付出巨大代價的時候，陳水扁的毅力的來源一定是理想。

 

美麗島的時候，陳水扁所需仰賴的毅力必定是更堅更強的，可能要比2004年競選連任時更超乎我們的想象。而那時的陳水扁熬了過來，靠的正是這過人的毅力，而這毅力靠的只能是崇高而堅定的理想。可以想見，這些理想是和當初推動臺灣走向民主的所有仁人志士是一樣的，和為這理想而犧牲奉獻的人是一樣的，和他所辯護的施明德是一樣的，和他所推崇的黃信介是一樣的；一樣的美好，一樣的壯麗，一樣的令人動容。

 

這理想在什么時候褪色淡去了呢？想必不是一朝一夕的事情，這里邊的故事寫成小說一定精彩，給任何一個對政治有熱心的人看都一定有非常重要的參考作用，然而此時令我思考的是另外一個問題：陳水扁是怎樣的心境？

 

我願意相信，他還是能夠想起自己當初為理想而奮鬥的風發意氣的，也一定能想起為這理想共同走過來的戰友們的，也許還能夠想起逝去的黃信介主席黨外時期跟他一起憧憬這理想的畫面吧。我很想知道，承認確有將幾億款項匯往國外的陳水扁還能夠想起他的那些理想嗎？

 

陳水扁有沒有對曾擁有理想的驕傲，有沒有回想追求理想過程的激動，有沒有對而今背叛理想的慚愧？反扁者會覺得他大概對那份理想只剩下冷漠甚至是不屑了，然而，我還是願意相信，相信陳水扁在某個靜思的時刻，多少會有一絲絲的感慨與不安吧。今天我希望看到的正是這一絲絲的不安能夠幫助他在這樣的一個權力已經放下，誘惑也在遠去，掌聲與群眾也不再包圍著自己，越來越多的時間需要面對自己的時刻作出正確的抉擇。雖然，我並不樂觀。

 

Ma Ying-Jeou’s Trigonometric Challenge

If there is no surprise, Ma will become the
president of Taiwan
in little over a week, and resume his office in two months.  With all the problems he is facing, Taiwan’s international
status will be a more and more important issue he must deal with.

 

Taiwanese people want a membership in the UN, in
what way, with what name maybe hard to agree, but hoping for the government to
do something about it is overwhelmingly coherent.

 

China, on the other hand, yelling anti succession, blocking
all access of Taiwan on its attempt to claim its name on any international
arena, not only on UN membership but also WHO and many others.  Any time Taiwan
wants to use the name Taiwan
or ROC will be boycott by the Chinese government.

 

The West, worry they may piss off the government
that controls the largest economic engine of the world, took the easiest stand,
repeat one of the most out dated diplomatic statement of the time: “Status Quo!”

 

Taiwan
is an obsessed democracy.  Even if Ma
wants to ignore this demand of people on having an appropriate international
status Taiwan
deserves, the opposition will make sure that voice will be heard.  This will become a big pressure to Ma for
sure.

 

Is this a solvable trigonometric challenge?

 

If one pays enough attention, one would
understand the true interest of all three parties that hide behind the tumultuous
and hostile and tough voices and actions.

 

What Taiwan really wants is dignity,
safety, equality and participating opportunity.  Do they really want to declare as an
independent country?  Many politicians
argue that that is the only way to secure those wishes.  China’s military threat make people hesitate
about taking any action toward that directions, but at the same time, it makes
people believe more and more in some day it maybe the only way.  Military threat aside, the cultural tie and
economical interests are playing no small part in peoples mind.  In sum, people in Taiwan are undecided about weather
they should claim independent or not.

 

That is actually the only thing China cares.

 

It should be understood that China don’t really want reunification with Taiwan, but they sure can not tolerate Taiwan
to become independent.  This may sound
funny or even contradictory to many who don’t understand the totalitarian
thinking.  To the Chinese regime, to
reunify with Taiwan would only be extra credit, and nobody will be blamed if
that is not done, because the separated status was passed down from the last
generation or even from Mao time.  The
current regime does not have any responsibility of carrying out the
reunification that was not done by Mao or Deng. 
However, it was also seen to the regime that neither Mao nor Deng lost Taiwan.
 Whoever losses Taiwan while in the office will
face tremendous challenge.  It was just a
status of temporarily non-unified.  That
is the status quo China
wants.

 

The West’s true interest now is to have a stable
cross strait relation.  At the beginning,
US and the West supported Taiwan
being an allied-force against communism. 
Time goes by, for other interest, earlier geopolitics, now economy, the
West betray Taiwan.  But after all, in the mean time this allied
force developed into a democracy.  It
became an inconvenient fact that Taiwan
is democracy and China
is not, and they have to take sides from time to time.

 

Given these are the true interests; is there a
chance to find a solution that satisfies all parties?  The answer is yes.  It is not easy and will take quite some
creative thinking, but, yes.

 

The key relay on the fact China wants nothing more
than Taiwan forsake the possibility of Claiming independent; and in the myths
of “One China” to be respected that was created over the long time of
propaganda and self-hypnotism.  If it is guaranteed
that Taiwan
will not claim independent and agree on some terminology of “One China”,
Chinese regime is willing to give up so much on the negotiation table.

 

Assume there is a negotiation table, whereas China has the economic, military and diplomatic upper-hand,
it may seems Taiwan
has little bargaining chips.  But in
fact, giving China those
words of guarantee is the biggest chips Taiwan has.

 

If Taiwan
can get dignity, security, equality and opportunity to participate in the world
arena in exchange of those wording, in my humble opinion, this is a good
trade.  The only issue left is, last but
not the least, the trust issue.  Lack of
trust have brought China to use military threat against Taiwan, blockage in all
international arena against Taiwan;  lack
of trust have made Taiwanese people not being able to sense with the Chinese
regime.  And that is an issue can be
solved by international involvement.  If
the deal is endorsed and guaranteed by the West, if Taiwanese people are
convinced that they can actually get what they truly want without worrying
Chinese may change their mind after they have entered and agreement, they will
take this deal.

 

Let us countentplay a little further, after a
dramatic hand shaking between Hu Jin-Tao and Ma Ying-Jeou in Washington DC or
Paris, the communiqué was announced, and it reads like this: “The two
governments on the two side of the Taiwan straits meet today and agrees that
there is only one China in the world. 
The two governments are equal brotherly members of this one China;  The two government declare that under this
condition, they will never use military force against each other;  In the world, the two governments will support
each other in all areas according to the best interest to their people,
including United Nation; ”  Following the
communiqué, PRC announce full military adjustment and remove of all missiles
against Taiwan, and form a cooperation mechanism with Taiwan defense force for military
coordination;  Taiwan’s UN membership is
agreed by all nations with no obstacle;  State-head
of Taiwan jointly take part in all international occasions side by side with
their Chinese counter part…

 

Of course, this is only a countemplay.  But the logic is not.  Ma Ying-Jeou has a chance, a genuine chance
to realize this.  This maybe is the only
chance too.  Even if the development of
history sets a different course, it is beneficial to understand this chance
truly does exist.