If there is no surprise, Ma will become the
president of Taiwan
in little over a week, and resume his office in two months. With all the problems he is facing, Taiwan’s international
status will be a more and more important issue he must deal with.
Taiwanese people want a membership in the UN, in
what way, with what name maybe hard to agree, but hoping for the government to
do something about it is overwhelmingly coherent.
China, on the other hand, yelling anti succession, blocking
all access of Taiwan on its attempt to claim its name on any international
arena, not only on UN membership but also WHO and many others. Any time Taiwan
wants to use the name Taiwan
or ROC will be boycott by the Chinese government.
The West, worry they may piss off the government
that controls the largest economic engine of the world, took the easiest stand,
repeat one of the most out dated diplomatic statement of the time: “Status Quo!”
Taiwan
is an obsessed democracy. Even if Ma
wants to ignore this demand of people on having an appropriate international
status Taiwan
deserves, the opposition will make sure that voice will be heard. This will become a big pressure to Ma for
sure.
Is this a solvable trigonometric challenge?
If one pays enough attention, one would
understand the true interest of all three parties that hide behind the tumultuous
and hostile and tough voices and actions.
What Taiwan really wants is dignity,
safety, equality and participating opportunity. Do they really want to declare as an
independent country? Many politicians
argue that that is the only way to secure those wishes. China’s military threat make people hesitate
about taking any action toward that directions, but at the same time, it makes
people believe more and more in some day it maybe the only way. Military threat aside, the cultural tie and
economical interests are playing no small part in peoples mind. In sum, people in Taiwan are undecided about weather
they should claim independent or not.
That is actually the only thing China cares.
It should be understood that China don’t really want reunification with Taiwan, but they sure can not tolerate Taiwan
to become independent. This may sound
funny or even contradictory to many who don’t understand the totalitarian
thinking. To the Chinese regime, to
reunify with Taiwan would only be extra credit, and nobody will be blamed if
that is not done, because the separated status was passed down from the last
generation or even from Mao time. The
current regime does not have any responsibility of carrying out the
reunification that was not done by Mao or Deng.
However, it was also seen to the regime that neither Mao nor Deng lost Taiwan.
Whoever losses Taiwan while in the office will
face tremendous challenge. It was just a
status of temporarily non-unified. That
is the status quo China
wants.
The West’s true interest now is to have a stable
cross strait relation. At the beginning,
US and the West supported Taiwan
being an allied-force against communism.
Time goes by, for other interest, earlier geopolitics, now economy, the
West betray Taiwan. But after all, in the mean time this allied
force developed into a democracy. It
became an inconvenient fact that Taiwan
is democracy and China
is not, and they have to take sides from time to time.
Given these are the true interests; is there a
chance to find a solution that satisfies all parties? The answer is yes. It is not easy and will take quite some
creative thinking, but, yes.
The key relay on the fact China wants nothing more
than Taiwan forsake the possibility of Claiming independent; and in the myths
of “One China” to be respected that was created over the long time of
propaganda and self-hypnotism. If it is guaranteed
that Taiwan
will not claim independent and agree on some terminology of “One China”,
Chinese regime is willing to give up so much on the negotiation table.
Assume there is a negotiation table, whereas China has the economic, military and diplomatic upper-hand,
it may seems Taiwan
has little bargaining chips. But in
fact, giving China those
words of guarantee is the biggest chips Taiwan has.
If Taiwan
can get dignity, security, equality and opportunity to participate in the world
arena in exchange of those wording, in my humble opinion, this is a good
trade. The only issue left is, last but
not the least, the trust issue. Lack of
trust have brought China to use military threat against Taiwan, blockage in all
international arena against Taiwan; lack
of trust have made Taiwanese people not being able to sense with the Chinese
regime. And that is an issue can be
solved by international involvement. If
the deal is endorsed and guaranteed by the West, if Taiwanese people are
convinced that they can actually get what they truly want without worrying
Chinese may change their mind after they have entered and agreement, they will
take this deal.
Let us countentplay a little further, after a
dramatic hand shaking between Hu Jin-Tao and Ma Ying-Jeou in Washington DC or
Paris, the communiqué was announced, and it reads like this: “The two
governments on the two side of the Taiwan straits meet today and agrees that
there is only one China in the world.
The two governments are equal brotherly members of this one China; The two government declare that under this
condition, they will never use military force against each other; In the world, the two governments will support
each other in all areas according to the best interest to their people,
including United Nation; ” Following the
communiqué, PRC announce full military adjustment and remove of all missiles
against Taiwan, and form a cooperation mechanism with Taiwan defense force for military
coordination; Taiwan’s UN membership is
agreed by all nations with no obstacle; State-head
of Taiwan jointly take part in all international occasions side by side with
their Chinese counter part…
Of course, this is only a countemplay. But the logic is not. Ma Ying-Jeou has a chance, a genuine chance
to realize this. This maybe is the only
chance too. Even if the development of
history sets a different course, it is beneficial to understand this chance
truly does exist.
